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I recently started having this same exact issue - port forwarding, auto or manually is not working outside of the LAN - obviously, an issue when I would rather see what's happening when I'm away from home.I'm running macOS 10.12.2, and iOS 10.2
I'm getting the same exact error message.
I am in New Jersey and the issue persists. I'm just glad you're on top of this, because I thought I was going crazy.I've definitely rebooted, power-cycled, reset Network Settings, and it's still not working over direct cellular. VPN over cellular, and direct Wi-Fi work fine.macOS 10.12.2, iOS 10.2 (14C92) and T-Mobile carrier settings version 27.1.